Yield outlook
How is this county’s yield tracking against its trend, as the season’s weather comes in?
- For
- Farmers, grain buyers
- Built from
- Yields, daily weather, drought, soil
Experimental · being built
Predict
Forecasts for the season ahead, built from 26 years of county records and tested on years they never saw. They aren’t ready yet; here is what’s coming.
Drought risk
How likely is a county to reach severe drought in the next few weeks?
- For
- State drought programs
- Built from
- Drought Monitor history, rain, soil moisture, water balance
Frost-safe planting date
What is the earliest planting date with no more than a 1-in-10 chance of a later frost?
- For
- Extension agronomists
- Built from
- Daily lows and freeze dates, 2000–2025
Crop loss risk
Which counties are likely to see large insurance payouts this season, and why?
- For
- Crop insurers
- Built from
- Insurance payouts by cause, drought, heat, storms
How every prediction will be checked
- A range, not just a number. Each forecast says how sure it is.
- Tested on unseen years. Models learn from earlier seasons and are scored on later ones, and the score is shown next to the forecast.
- On the map and in reports. Forecasts will extend the date dial past today and appear as report blocks, marked Experimental.
Until then, the evidence they’ll rest on is already in Explore and Report.
Data: USDA NASS (this product uses the NASS API but is not endorsed or certified by NASS), U.S. Drought Monitor (National Drought Mitigation Center, USDA and NOAA), NOAA ACIS and Storm Events, NASA POWER, MODIS and GIBS imagery, USDA NRCS SSURGO, USDA RMA Cause of Loss, and the U.S. Census Bureau.